Filter
Select this option when you are still thinking about this decision.
Select this option when you have made the decision but haven't acted on it yet.
Select this option when you have made and implemented your decision, but before the result/outcome of your action is known.
This option can not be selected here. Decision becomes resolved when you enter the outcome on the "Resolution" tab below.
Enter a date in year/month/date format only.
Date by which you want to make this decision and take a corresponding action.
Enter a date in year/month/date format only.
Date by which you expect to know the actual outcome, corresponding to your decision.
- Describe what you are trying to achieve and what action you expect to take as result of this decision.
- Why is this decision important?
- What do you expect the outcome to be if you make the right decision?
- Describe the current situation and factors that you think are important for this decision.
- What arguments can you think of for and against this particular decision?
- What are the main variables/factors that govern the situation?
- To what parameters is the outcome of this decision most sensitive too?
- What factors make it difficult to decide?
- What could influence the outcome of this decision in unpredictable or hard to predict way?
What elso could you do instead (in case of "should I do X" decsion)? What is the opportunity cost (by doing this what are you not doing)?
- What do you wish you knew that would make this decision easier?
- What aspects are not clear?
- What do you assume is true when thinking about this decision?
- What assumptions does this decision rely on?
- Which assumptions, if reversed will make you change your mind on this decision?
- Describe what can happen in the future. Consider full range of possible outcomes, no matter how unlikely.
- What is the worst-case scenario and why that’s ok?
- What is the potential upside beyond core thesis?
Outcomes
Write down any aditional notes that come with your estimate of outcome probabilitites:
- Any aditional emotional or mental states not listed below
- If you are updating your estimate what new information or argument made you change your mind?
- What action are you taking as result of this estimate?
- If you are updating your estimate what corrective action (if any) are you taking?
Briefly describe what actually happened. Do you think you made the right decision? Try to evaluate decision based only on what you knew when making it? If it didn't go your way, was it just luck or did you overlook something important. Try avoiding hindsight bias whether you ended up making the right decision or the wrong one.
Brier Score